Socialdemokraternas Framtidskontrakt rymmer rubriker, som är värda att lägga på minnet. Till exempel: ”Ekonomin växer när människor växer”.
För mig är den rubriken en bra sammanfattning på socialdemokratisk ekonomisk politik, så som den bör vara; en politik som utgår från social rättvisa och från människors kraft och kreativitet. Sveriges historiska framgångar bygger på en produktiv och stark välfärdspolitik. En blomstrande ekonomi har sin grund i sociala investeringar.
Tyvärr är texten i Framtidskontraktet inte lika tydlig som rubrikerna. Efter några bra avsnitt om vikten av god välfärd och jämlika livschanser landar analysen till sist ändå i att det är låg inflation och sunda statsfinanser som är viktigast av allt.
Men… om vi ska försöka se ljuset i tunneln: Kanske är vi som socialdemokrater ändå mitt i steget, på väg mot ett nytt synsätt – på ekonomin och på framtiden? Jag hoppas det.
I helgen har jag talat om vikten av en stark social investeringspolitik på en framtidskonferens i Paris. Det gladde mig att min plädering för en social investeringspolitik väckte så stort intresse. Viktiga fakta fick jag inför konferensen av Ingvar Nilsson och Anders Wadensjö, som i en rad publikationer – bland dem Utanförskapets pris, har visat varför en preventiv socialpolitik är bra inte bara för individen, utan också för samhället. Tack för det!
En del av min argumentation finns att läsa i Les Echos, ”Société Innovante: investir dans le capital humain”. Texten återges här nedan i engelsk version. En personlig rapport från evenemanget av Rob Hopkins finns att läsa här.
An innovative society: investing in human capital
In the longer term, two major challenges face European policymakers. The first is the survival of the welfare state. The second is climate change. Both these challenges draw attention to a highly controversial issue in public debates today: the role of economic growth.
Environmentalists in particular argue that no more growth is possible. Europe should instead pave the way for a “steady state” economy, based on fair distribution and more limited use of resources.
Most policymakers in Europe, however, would argue the opposite; that pro-growth policies are necessary, both to sustain the welfare state and to tackle climate change.
What way forwards should then be chosen?
In my contribution to the IDDRI International Conference on an An Innovative Society for the 21st Century, I will argue that European debates on economic growth need a new point of departure, beyond the pros and cons of economic growth.
In fact, neither the idea of high-level growth forever, nor the idea to stop economic growth all together, stand out as relevant strategies. What we need instead, I suggest, is agreement on a new approach to sustainable, long-term prosperity. A useful starting point for such an endeavor is recent research on demographic drivers of growth.
Population dynamics in economic development
In the last decade a growing body of research has demonstrated that the key factor behind variations in economic growth, between regions and over time, is the age composition of the population.
Sooner or later, however, population ageing will set in and the demographic gift will disappear. For Europe, this is the relevant future scenario to consider.
The important lesson from this research – not least for policymakers – is that no region in the world can forever retain an optimal composition of its population. This means that relevant economic policies must accept that growth rates differ over time, while making the most of available human resources.
What future for the welfare state?
As for the welfare state, the narrative of population dynamics offers strikingly new perspectives on current debates.
Welfare state policies should not, as today, be seen as costly consumption. Instead, they should be seen as investment in future economic performance. Welfare states have the capacity to make the most of available human resources by investing in education, health, employment, family policies and social protection. These investments are equally important in ageing societies as in youthful ones.
Will investments pay back? Available evidence shows that they will. Social investment policies influence the long-term age composition of the population. They also influence other important determinants of economic performance, such as health, education and social cohesion.
A Swedish example can illustrate this point.
Studies on the cost of social exclusion have shown that 13 percent of each Swedish youth cohort fails to enter successfully in adult life. In five years, the cost for this failure corresponds to the total Swedish public debt, 210 billion crowns. Preventive social inclusion policies thus prove to be cost-effective, in spite of seemingly large costs in the short term.
What future for the battle on climate change?
For environmentalists it should be good news to hear that Europe moves towards a low-growth scenario, due to population ageing.
However, an even more important message would be that social investment policies have potential to facilitate climate change mitigation.
An indication is that countries with more equal income distribution tend to be more successful in climate change mitigation than more unequal ones. A possible explanation to this pattern is that social cohesion serves to strengthen the public ethos and commitment to work together that we need to solve common problems, such as climate change.
In terms of strategy, environmentalists should probably gain more by strongly supporting policies for social fairness than by attacking the quest for economic growth per se.
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To conclude, Europe today is one of the richest regions in the world and has potential to remain rich, even when economic growth slows down. It is critical to remember, however, that Europe’s capacity to tackle future challenges ultimately depends on its population. Human capital is the key to our future.
Lena Sommestad
Professor, MP Swedish Parliament
Further reading: Nathalie Morel, Bruno Palier and Joakim Palme (eds), Towards a Social Investment Welfare State? Ideas, Policies, Challenges. Policy Press, 2011.
Nedan en illustration av Europas framtid: en befolkning med en allt mindre andel yrkesaktiva i jämförelse med barn och gamla, och därmed sämre förutsättningar för ekonomisk utveckling. Något som vi dock ofta glömmer bort är att Europa fortfarande har en mycket gynnsam åldersstruktur, vilket syns tydligt i diagrammet. Detta är en viktig påminnelse om att vi bör satsa på sociala investeringar idag, så att vi på bästa sätt rustar de människor som ska bära framtidens samhällsekonomi. Det är viktigare än att spara i finansiella papper!
Lena Sommestad 